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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 17:27:12 GMT
It's a bit more than people buying bog rolls, what we saw from many was a default reaction that manifested into a 'look after number one' panic. There are cultural and political reasons for why that sensibility is so widespread, I think it would naive to think there isn't. I think he's spot on, but we'll have to agree to disagree because I can't get into it right now.
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Post by Reactionary Rage on Mar 24, 2020 17:37:00 GMT
www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178aIn case you can't read the link... Clive Cookson, Science Editor The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford. If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said. The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic. The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus. The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients. But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated. Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19. To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days. I had a bad cold in January that lasted over two weeks with a cough that just wouldn't quit. Judging on my office I wasn't alone. Was that actually Covid-19?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 17:41:57 GMT
Greta Thunberg has got it. Let's hope she makes a speedy recovery.
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Post by Reactionary Rage on Mar 24, 2020 17:42:09 GMT
It's a bit more than people buying bog rolls, what we saw from many was a default reaction that manifested into a 'look after number one' panic. There are cultural and political reasons for why that sensibility is so widespread, I think it would naive to think there isn't. I think he's spot on, but we'll have to agree to disagree because I can't get into it right now. What's the point in arguing when we might be dead in a couple of months!
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Post by Reactionary Rage on Mar 24, 2020 17:44:12 GMT
Greta Thunberg has got it. Let's hope she makes a speedy recovery. Can you imagine if she died from it? The world would never recover
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Post by tory on Mar 24, 2020 17:48:02 GMT
I don't buy the selfishness thing through bog rolls either.
There was a very good post from a guy called Greg Callus on twitter that said that the sight of empty shelves on social media exacerbated a bit more buying than usual. Supermarkets in the UK have a super-sophisticated delivery system where they deliver exactly what the supermarket needs for the day. As lots of city-based stores have little or no storage space, this means that a 10% rise in footfall, with shoppers probably spending around 10% to 15% more than they usually do, has contributed to the empty shelves earlier than normal.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 17:50:32 GMT
Greta Thunberg has got it. Let's hope she makes a speedy recovery. Can you imagine if she died from it? The world would never recover At least it would make Jimbo happy! He'd be like a pig in shit, he'd have a conspiracy theory to last him a lifetime!
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Post by tory on Mar 24, 2020 17:53:17 GMT
The thing is, we unequivocally accept the testimony of experts. And yet, experts are very often totally wrong.
Peter Hitchens has pointed out that this is quite similar to Foot & Mouth, where farmers were ruined by having to destroy livestock.
The thing is, people who go against scientific and expert analysis are often thought to be heretical and shouted down in a herd mentality.
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Post by Reactionary Rage on Mar 24, 2020 17:54:39 GMT
The supermarkets have been mostly fine for me. Some empty shelves but that's it. I haven't been the last few days mind but still...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 17:56:00 GMT
fuck it why fucking bother
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 17:59:36 GMT
I don't buy the selfishness thing through bog rolls either. There was a very good post from a guy called Greg Callus on twitter that said that the sight of empty shelves on social media exacerbated a bit more buying than usual. Supermarkets in the UK have a super-sophisticated delivery system where they deliver exactly what the supermarket needs for the day. As lots of city-based stores have little or no storage space, this means that a 10% rise in footfall, with shoppers probably spending around 10% to 15% more than they usually do, has contributed to the empty shelves earlier than normal. Oh come on Toby you're deluding yourself if you don't think there was and is widespread stockpiling. Let's not pretend that this is a narrative made up by left wingers for their own purposes. Just speak to some supermarket workers for goodness sake to hear what's been happening!
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Post by Playground LEVINE on Mar 24, 2020 17:59:57 GMT
The supermarkets have been mostly fine for me. Some empty shelves but that's it. I haven't been the last few days mind but still... They've been fine for me too, apart from two days a couple of weeks ago when there was no rice or pasta or any of that in Lidl. This is clearly the SCOTTISH EXPERIENCE and their progressive attitude to everything has PAIDE OFFE
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Post by Playground LEVINE on Mar 24, 2020 18:01:00 GMT
I don't buy the selfishness thing through bog rolls either. There was a very good post from a guy called Greg Callus on twitter that said that the sight of empty shelves on social media exacerbated a bit more buying than usual. Supermarkets in the UK have a super-sophisticated delivery system where they deliver exactly what the supermarket needs for the day. As lots of city-based stores have little or no storage space, this means that a 10% rise in footfall, with shoppers probably spending around 10% to 15% more than they usually do, has contributed to the empty shelves earlier than normal. Oh come on Toby you're deluding yourself if you don't think there was and is widespread stockpiling. Let's not pretend that this is a narrative made up by left wingers for their own purposes. Just speak to some supermarket workers for goodness sake to hear what's been happening! I think you miss his point, G - he's saying that "empty shelves" isn't as dramatic as it looks.
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Post by tory on Mar 24, 2020 18:02:19 GMT
I don't doubt that there is SOME stockpiling. Whether stockpiling is the same as hoarding is another matter.
We will see in a couple of weeks where things are. You don't know if every shopper is buying just for themselves, their family or maybe for a number of shoppers. It is almost impossible to predict buying trends in situations like this.
For example, there are a number of elderly people on our road. If I go to the supermarket to buy food for them, am I going to be accused of stockpiling?
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Post by hippopotamus on Mar 24, 2020 18:03:10 GMT
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. The world of acadaemia does make me laugh. Being so Entrenched in it, it's a very bitter ironic sort of laugh most of the time. Still, it has it's upsides. The most positive news I get these days are calls through my University e-mail account-- some asking for anyone with any bio-molecular experience to come work on work related to Covid -19, others for grant calls made available for people who want to start research right away. One of my colleagues sent me this, which I thought was pretty inspiring in a way: theconversation.com/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941I do wonder if this sort of epidemic is harder to live through because as a general population we've never been so informed, and yet none is an expert. Working in Science, you MUST assume all models are just models based on the information that is fed into them. We have more information than ever, but this is still a novel phenomenon. And anything that involves human behaviour is going to have a large degree of uncertainty. Personally I don't think it's for me to question policy that there is sound reason behind, but it's also a given that it's flawed. I don't know if it's morbid or just my academic nature to be somewhat fascinated by how everything works out in the end. It's a huge burden on politicians, policy makers as well as the general public. I'm very glad I don't have to make big decisions or advise anyone about what to do. I also miss working as a doctor because at least my role there is really well defined, and definitely on the side of Good. (But of course I'm grateful, not having to take for granted that I'm likely to contract it, and have to live with the fear that I'm going to somehow infect my loved ones.) As to referencing the alternative models etc. I don't think it's that interesting to say that we don't know the mortality rate. We were never going to know the mortality rate. Some ideas circulating around the internet about getting tests available to everyone seem very misjudged to me. Epidaemiologists are good at working with numbers, and we HAVE numbers. The fact that we don't have exact numbers, doesn't mean everyone needs to get tests. More that we need to wait to get closer an accurate number. But only time will help us.
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